CFTC COT data of Feb 17th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 170627, spreads 1630 (1.0%).  Closing price Feb 17th 1.5350 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +41305 (frpm +54486)  Large Specs -28798 (from -38603)
                              Small Specs -12507 (from -15883)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (51.9% of total o/i) - 

  64.2% of Longs (from 69.6%), 39.7% of Shorts (vs 38.4%), balance plus 24.4 (vs plus 31.2)

 Large Specs (34.0% of total) - 

   25.4% of Longs (from 21.1%), 42.5% of Shorts (vs 43.2%), balance minus 17.0 (vs minus 22.1)   

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  10.4% of Longs (from 9.3%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 18.4%), balance minus 7.4 (vs minus 9.1)
 
Commercials have cut longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs done the reverse. Small Specs have only a very small share of the total open position at present, and can probably be disregarded as a factor. The main trend thus appears to remain upward.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 115630, spreads 3779 (3.2%). Closing price Feb 17th 94.11
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -86382 (from -88269)  Large Specs +66062 (from +68938)
                              Small Specs +20320 (from +19331)

Proportions -

 Commercials (50.2% of total o/i) - 11.6% of Longs (from 10.5%), 88.8% of Shorts (vs 89.7%), balance minus 77.2 (vs minus 79.2)

 Large Specs (39.0% of total) - 68.5% of Longs (from 70.6%), 9.5% of Shorts (vs 8.7%), balance plus 59.0 (vs plus 61.9) 

  Small Specs (10.8% of total) - 19.9% of Longs (from 18.9%), 1.7% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 18.2

 (vs plus 17.3)

Commercials have added to longs and left shorts around unchanged, while Large Specs have done the reverse. Small Specs have again added to nett longs - not normally bullish for the Dollar. 

CFTC COT data of Feb 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175966, spreads 1542 (0.8%).  Closing price Feb 10th 1.5250 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +54486 (from +61088)  Large Specs -38603 (from -42398)
                              Small Specs -15883 (from -18690)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.0% of total o/i) - 

  69.6% of Longs (from 71.1%), 38.4% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance plus 31.2 (vs plus 33.7)

 Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 

   21.1% of Longs (from 20.0%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 22.1 (vs minus 23.4)   

  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 

  9.3% of Longs (from 8.9%), 18.4% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance minus 9.1 (vs minus 10.3) 
 

  Almost all sectors of the open interest have been reduced, with Commercials taking some profits on their longs - but not to any extreme extent. Large Specs similarly have cut some shorts, but remain bearish overall. There seems to be no rush to go long the Pound, although that could be the favoured position from here - the downtrend from last July's highs has been broken, after all.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 114816, spreads 3342 (2.9%). Closing price Feb 10th 94.82
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88269 (from -90600)  Large Specs +68938 (from +71606)
                              Small Specs +19331 (from +18994)

Proportions -

 Commercials (50.0% of total o/i) - 10.5% of Longs (from 11.3%), 89.7% of Shorts (vs 84.8%), balance minus 79.2 (vs minus 73.5)

 Large Specs (39.7% of total) - 70.6% of Longs (from 71.5%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 13.4%), balance plus 61.9 (vs plus 58.1) 

  Small Specs (10.3% of total) - 18.9% of Longs (from 17.2%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 17.3 

 (vs plus 15.4) 
Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate); although their nett short position is slightly lower, proportionately it is extremely high. Additionally, Small Specs have added to nett longs - neither statistic is bullish for the Dollar, even though this view may be counter-intuitive. 

CFTC COT data of Feb 3rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182903, spreads 1677 (0.9%).  Closing price Feb 3rd 1.5160 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +61088 (from +66219)  Large Specs -42398 (from -45340)
                              Small Specs -18690 (from -20879)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.2% of total o/i) - 

  71.1% of Longs (from 70.4%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance plus 33.7 (vs plus 36.1)

 Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 

  20.0% of Longs (from 21.1%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.8%), balance minus 23.4 (vs minus 24.7)   

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  8.9% of Longs (from 8.5%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 10.3 (vs minus 11.4) 
 

Once again, not enough change in proportions to give any particular signal/s - but the decrease in total open interest and in nett positions held might indicate an impending change in trend.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 125025, spreads 1830 (1.5%). Closing price Feb 3rd 93.75 
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -90600 (from -90114)  Large Specs +71606 (from +70673)
                              Small Specs +18994 (from +19441)

Proportions -

  Commercials (48.0% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 10.2%), 84.8% of Shorts (vs 80.8%), balance minus 73.5 (vs minus 70.6)

  Large Specs (42.5% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 72.2%), 13.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance plus 58.1 (vs plus 55.3) 

  Small Specs (9.5% of total) - 17.2% of Longs (from 17.6%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 2.3%), balance plus 15.4 (vs plus 15.3) 

Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate), with their nett standing at the highest for over 12 months.Since they are (theoretically at least) the best capitalised, and therefore the most capable of holding on to positions against the trend, in the long run they are likely to win. We shall be watching for 'technical' sell signals.