Saturday 14 February 2015

CFTC COT data of Feb 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175966, spreads 1542 (0.8%).  Closing price Feb 10th 1.5250 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +54486 (from +61088)  Large Specs -38603 (from -42398)
                              Small Specs -15883 (from -18690)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (54.0% of total o/i) - 
  69.6% of Longs (from 71.1%), 38.4% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance plus 31.2 (vs plus 33.7)
 Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 
   21.1% of Longs (from 20.0%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 22.1 (vs minus 23.4)   
  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 
  9.3% of Longs (from 8.9%), 18.4% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance minus 9.1 (vs minus 10.3) 
 
  Almost all sectors of the open interest have been reduced, with Commercials taking some profits on their longs - but not to any extreme extent. Large Specs similarly have cut some shorts, but remain bearish overall. There seems to be no rush to go long the Pound, although that could be the favoured position from here - the downtrend from last July's highs has been broken, after all.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 114816, spreads 3342 (2.9%). Closing price Feb 10th 94.82
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -88269 (from -90600)  Large Specs +68938 (from +71606)
                              Small Specs +19331 (from +18994)

Proportions -
 Commercials (50.0% of total o/i) - 10.5% of Longs (from 11.3%), 89.7% of Shorts (vs 84.8%), balance minus 79.2 (vs minus 73.5)
 Large Specs (39.7% of total) - 70.6% of Longs (from 71.5%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 13.4%), balance plus 61.9 (vs plus 58.1) 
  Small Specs (10.3% of total) - 18.9% of Longs (from 17.2%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 17.3 
 (vs plus 15.4) 
Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate); although their nett short position is slightly lower, proportionately it is extremely high. Additionally, Small Specs have added to nett longs - neither statistic is bullish for the Dollar, even though this view may be counter-intuitive. 

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