CFTC COT data of Feb 3rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182903, spreads 1677 (0.9%).  Closing price Feb 3rd 1.5160 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +61088 (from +66219)  Large Specs -42398 (from -45340)
                              Small Specs -18690 (from -20879)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.2% of total o/i) - 

  71.1% of Longs (from 70.4%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance plus 33.7 (vs plus 36.1)

 Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 

  20.0% of Longs (from 21.1%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.8%), balance minus 23.4 (vs minus 24.7)   

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  8.9% of Longs (from 8.5%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 10.3 (vs minus 11.4) 
 

Once again, not enough change in proportions to give any particular signal/s - but the decrease in total open interest and in nett positions held might indicate an impending change in trend.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 125025, spreads 1830 (1.5%). Closing price Feb 3rd 93.75 
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -90600 (from -90114)  Large Specs +71606 (from +70673)
                              Small Specs +18994 (from +19441)

Proportions -

  Commercials (48.0% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 10.2%), 84.8% of Shorts (vs 80.8%), balance minus 73.5 (vs minus 70.6)

  Large Specs (42.5% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 72.2%), 13.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance plus 58.1 (vs plus 55.3) 

  Small Specs (9.5% of total) - 17.2% of Longs (from 17.6%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 2.3%), balance plus 15.4 (vs plus 15.3) 

Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate), with their nett standing at the highest for over 12 months.Since they are (theoretically at least) the best capitalised, and therefore the most capable of holding on to positions against the trend, in the long run they are likely to win. We shall be watching for 'technical' sell signals.