Saturday 14 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]


British Pounds - Total o/i 205166, spreads 7704 (3.8%).  Closing price Mar 10th 1.5065 
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47650 (from +35400)  Large Specs -32591 (from -26908)
                              Small Specs -15059 (from -8492)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (54.8% of total o/i) - 
  66.9% of Longs (from 61.2%), 42.8% of Shorts (vs 39.7%), balance plus 24.1 (vs plus 21.5)

 Large Specs (32.6% of total) - 
   24.3% of Longs (from 27.1%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 16.5 (vs minus 16.3)   

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 
  8.8% of Longs (from 11.7%), 16.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance minus 7.6 (vs minus 5.2)

Commercials have added to longs, both nett and proportionately, although their balance is by no means extreme. Large Specs added noticeably to shorts on a nett basis, but their proportionate figure was not much changed, since the total o/i increased considerably. Small Specs retain a very small proportion of the total, but have added to shorts. All told, we might expect some steadiness for a while.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 148486, spreads 14822 (10.0%). Closing price Mar 10th 98.60
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -99734 (from -86444)  Large Specs +81270 (from +67218)
                              Small Specs +18464 (from +19226)

Proportions -

 Commercials (48.6% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 11.7%), 85.9% of Shorts (vs 83.1%), balance minus 74.6 (vs minus 71.4)

 Large Specs (42.3% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 70.8%), 11.9% of Shorts (vs 15.3%), balance plus 60.8 (vs plus 55.5) 
  Small Specs (9.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 17.5%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 13.8
 (vs plus 15.9)
   
The very large increase in spreads and in the total o/i could be explained by the approach of the March expiry, but otherwise recent trends seem expected to continue - always a dangerous circumstance. 

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