Saturday 9 May 2015

CFTC COT data of May 5th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]



British Pounds - Total o/i 173468, spreads 1441 (0.8%).  Closing price May 5th 1.5170 (close on May 8th 1.5450, after high 1.5520)
  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30343 (from +44758)  Large Specs -24758 (from -34128)
                              Small Specs -5585 (from -10630)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (59.5% of total o/i) - 
  68.3% of Longs (from 69.5%), 50.7% of Shorts (vs 43.2%), balance plus 17.6 (vs plus 26.3)
 Large Specs (27.1% of total) - 
   19.9% of Longs (from 19.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 39.6%), balance minus 14.4 (vs minus 20.1) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 
  11.8% of Longs (from 11.0%), 15.0% of Shorts (vs 17.2%), balance minus 3.2 (vs minus 6.2)

 Commercials added considerably to shorts, both on a nett and a proportionate basis, presumably fearing the worst from the election results. In the event however, the surprise win by the Tories vindicated the Large Specs, who had cut their shorts considerably. The change in next week's figures should give a good idea of longer term views about the new British political world.


 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 102100, spreads 2117 (2.1%). Closing price May 5th 95.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -70375 (from -79757)  Large Specs +58927 (from +64584)
                              Small Specs +11448 (from +15173)
Proportions -

 Commercials (46.8% of total o/i) - 11.6% of Longs (from 7.7%), 82.0% of Shorts (vs 80.7%), balance minus 70.4 (vs minus 73.0)

 Large Specs (43.2% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 71.5%), 13.8% of Shorts (vs 12.4%), balance plus 58.9 (vs plus 59.1) 
  Small Specs (10.0% of total) - 15.7% of Longs (from 20.8%), 4.2% of Shorts (vs 6.9%), balance plus 11.5

 (vs plus 13.9)
 
 Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year - probably a constructive sign (although maybe not immediately - COT is not necessarily good at giving short-term signals). Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts, putting them down to a comparatively small nett long - also probably a constructive sign.

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