Saturday 20 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 16th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 146635, spreads 1350 (0.9%).  Closing price Jun 16th 1.5650
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +25547 (from +30440)  Large Specs -25434 (from -28277)
                              Small Specs -113 (from -2163)
  Proportions:


 Commercials (51.8% of total o/i) - 60.6% of Longs (from 69.5%), 43.0% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 17.6 (from plus 17.5)
 Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 23.3% of Longs (from 17.8), 40.8% of Shorts (from 34.0%), balance minus 17.5 (from minus 16.2) 
  Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 16.1% of Longs (from 12.7%), 16.2% of Shorts (from 14.0%), balance minus 0.1 (from minus 1.3)
 
  Both spreads and total o/i were reduced considerably, primarily by the Commercials, but their proportional balance ended not much changed. Small Specs hold their largest total open position since early January - with their balance near square, this could suggest twitchy trading in the near term. Large Specs added to longs, but were also hanging on to their shorts - it will be interesting to see whether they have thrown in the towel during the recent rally. With Commercials still moderately long, dips are likely to be limited. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 86281, spreads 1140 (1.3%). Closing price Jun 16th 95.26
Nett differences:  Commercials -65003 (from -76035)  Large Specs +53420 (from +62877)

                              Small Specs +11583 (from +13158)
Proportions -
 Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 9.3% of Longs (from 12.8%), 85.6% of Shorts (from 87.9%), balance minus 76.3 (from minus 75.1)
 Large Specs (43.8% of total) - 75.1% of Longs (from 72.5%), 12.4% of Shorts (from 10.4%), balance plus 62.7 (from plus 62.1) 
  Small Specs (8.8% of total) - 15.6% of Longs (from 14.7%), 2.0% of Shorts (from 1.7%), balance plus 13.6 (from plus 13.0)
 
  Total o/i fell considerably, but proportions did not change dramatically. Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, but stayed nett short overall. Large Specs reduced longs considerably, although proportionately they held an increased share. There still seems no reason to turn bullish.

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