Saturday 27 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 23rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

British Pounds - Total o/i 178641, spreads 1234 (0.7%).  Closing price Jun 23rd 1.5725
  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +15587 (from +25547)  Large Specs -22194 (from -25434) 
                              Small Specs +6607 (from -113) 

  Proportions: 
Commercials (50.6% of total o/i) - 55.0% of Longs (from 60.6%), 46.2% of Shorts (from 43.0%), balance plus 8.8 (from plus 17.6)
Large Specs (35.3% of total) - 29.0% of Longs (from 23.3), 41.5% of Shorts (from 40.8%), balance minus 12.5 (from minus 17.5) 
   Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 12.3% of Shorts 
  (from 16.2%), balance plus 3.7 (from minus 0.1) 

  A change of attitude this week, with Commercials becoming bearish and Small Specs moving to the bull tack. Also a marked difference between the outright positions and the proportional - Commercials for example added to their total longs but held a lesser share of the increased total o/i, with the opposite showing on their shorts. Their proportionate balance, of plus 8.8, is the smallest since October last year - after that, Sterling gradually eased. With Small Specs going long, we expect the same to happen this time. 



Dollar Index: Total o/i 85932, spreads 1835 (2.1%). Closing price Jun 23rd 95.64
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -63553 (from -65003)  Large Specs +52345 (from +53420) 
 Small Specs +11208 (from +11583)

Proportions -
 Commercials (46.7% of total o/i) - 8.9% of Longs (from 9.3%), 84.4% of Shorts (from 85.6%), balance minus 75.5 (from minus 76.3)
 Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 75.7% of Longs (from 75.1%), 13.5% of Shorts (from 12.4%), balance plus 62.2 (from plus 62.7)
  Small Specs (8.7% of total) - 15.4% of Longs (from 15.6%), 2.1% of Shorts (from 2.0%), balance plus 13.3 (from plus 13.6)

Not much change overall (although we note that prices did dip, as expected, in the period between the 16th and the 23rd). Commercials are still favouring the short side - so do we. 

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

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