Saturday 6 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 2nd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]


British Pounds - Total o/i 175291, spreads 2560 (1.5%).  Closing price Jun 2nd 1.5345
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +28514 (from +26865)  Large Specs -25658 (from -25539)
                              Small Specs -2856 (from -1326)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.8% of total o/i) - 
  68.1% of Longs (from 67.4%), 51.6% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 16.5 (from plus 15.4)
 Large Specs (26.4% of total) - 
   19.0% of Longs (from 19.8), 33.8% of Shorts (from 34.4%), balance minus 14.8 (from minus 14.6) 

  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 
  12.9% of Longs (from 12.8%), 14.6% of Shorts (from 13.6%), balance minus 1.7 (from minus 0.8)

  Very little change in either the o/i figures or in the week-to-week price - we can only reiterate last week's comment: major weakness from here looks unlikely.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 102174, spreads 2708 (2.7%). Closing price Jun 2nd 95.90


Nett differences:  Commercials -73188 (from -65900)  Large Specs +59722 (from +52296)
                              Small Specs +13466 (from +13604)
Proportions -

 Commercials (49.4% of total o/i) - 12.6% of Longs (from 14.5%), 86.2% of Shorts (vs 80.2%), balance minus 73.6 (vs minus 65.7)

 Large Specs (42.8% of total) - 72.9% of Longs (from 69.5%), 12.8% of Shorts (vs 17.3%), balance plus 60.1 (vs plus 52.2) 
  Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.5% of Longs (from 16.0%), 1.0% of Shorts (vs 2.5%), balance plus 13.5
 (unchanged)
 
 Once again, Commercials reduced longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs added to longs but - this time - reduced shorts considerably. Small Specs reduced both long and short positions. Last week's comment proved correct, but this week's decision is more difficult - should one follow the Commercials (who are distinctly short), or the Large Specs (who are comparatively long)? [Small Specs seem to reflect this dilemma - they have a very limited commitment at present].  Our inclination, as always, is to take guidance from the Commercials in the medium term. 

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