Saturday 13 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 9th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 181049, spreads 6831 (3.8%).  Closing price Jun 9th 1.5375
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30440 (from +28514)  Large Specs -28277 (from -25658)
                              Small Specs -2163 (from -2856)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (60.8% of total o/i) - 
  69.5% of Longs (from 68.1%), 52.0% of Shorts (from 51.6%), balance plus 17.5 (from plus 16.5)
 Large Specs (25.9% of total) -
   17.8% of Longs (from 19.0), 34.0% of Shorts (from 33.8%), balance minus 16.2 (from minus 14.8) 

  Small Specs (13.3% of total) - 
  12.7% of Longs (from 12.9%), 14.0% of Shorts (from 14.6%), balance minus 1.3 (from minus 1.7)
 
  Although total o/i went up, much of the increase comprised additional spreads, presumably ahead of the June position going off the board. Otherwise, not much change, in either total or proportional figures.  Once again, we can only reiterate previous comments, although the odds on some further steadiness are looking stronger. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 105463, spreads 4204 (4.0%). Closing price Jun 9th 95.17


Nett differences:  Commercials -76035 (from -73188)  Large Specs +62877 (from +59722)
                              Small Specs +13158 (from +13466)
Proportions -

 Commercials (50.3% of total o/i) - 12.8% of Longs (from 12.6%), 87.9% of Shorts (from 86.2%), balance minus 75.1 (from minus 73.6)

 Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 72.5% of Longs (from 72.9%), 10.4% of Shorts (from 12.8%), balance plus 62.1 (from plus 60.1) 
  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.7% of Longs (from 14.5%), 1.7% of Shorts (from 1.0%), balance plus 13.0
(from plus 13.5)
 
  Commercials added considerably to shorts and also added slightly to longs, taking their total share of o/i to just over 50%. Large Specs did the reverse, while Small Specs remained basically sidelined. There seems no reason to change our view - taking guidance from the Commercials, in the medium term we'll remain bearish. 

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